SÜPER LİG · 2026/2027
Predictions
Probabilities, with their evidence.
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The primary forecast is saved within 24 hours before kickoff. A late first run retains its actual shorter horizon; existing records are preserved. Model goal means are projections, not measured xG.
Model method
Independent Poisson goals use home/away attack and defence rates, time decay and shrinkage toward league means. Lineups, injuries, weather and goal dependence are omitted. Probabilities are conditioned on the stated finite score grid; the small omitted mass and normalization are recorded in each audit.
Method and audit record
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